I'll repost Abel's photo from the Heuer collectors meet that showed this Autavia in the hands of TAG-Heuer themselves:

For me, this is probably enough proof that it's genuine - I think there was some discussion between the people who attended over whether this was indeed in for service or whether it was part of the TH collection. Whichever one of those it is, TH aren't going to embarrass themselves by showing a watch that isn't genuine to a bunch of collectors who know their stuff.

But what I'm interested in here is the date TAG-Heuer attribute it to. 1978. Now, I'm not sure what they're basing that on but its's late for a Cal 15 - by then, it had otherwise only been used in Monzas and the 15640 Skipper for a year or two. But let's take them at their word.

Now, I have 3 Carreras that can't be any earlier than 1978 as that's when the models were introduced. The serial numbers range between 371xxx and 391xxx. As ever with serial numbers, I'll add the caveat that we need bigger sample sizes to be sure, but the probability is that those serials are indeed from 1978, with a smaller possibility of 1979.

It is reassuring though that the watches referred to are close in serial number, you'd probably expect a small series run to be close together (look at how close the PVD Monacos serial numbers are, for example).

So then, 270xxx serial numbers. When do we see those on watches? Well, again, we have a degree of uncertainty still, but one thing is for sure, it's way off the 1978 date used above. It seems to be closer to when the Cal 15 was introduced in 1972, although not amongst the very earliest serials for that movement - let's say 1973 +/- a bit.

So a date range between three samples of the same model of watch of probably less than a month between Andreas' and the eBay example, then 5 years or so til the one in the TH collection. That raises as many questions as it answers to be honest.

-- Is the TH date correct, or just a bit of a guess?

-- We can be sure that this isn't a prototype if the production run spanned five or six years, surely?

-- Does a 270xxx serial rule this out from being a prototype at all? We see Cal 15 serials for other models with 230-240xxx numbers, were Autavias with the movement only introduced that much later? I'm no Autavia expert but I suspect not - anyone with a regular 15630 with an earlier serial?

-- Does anyone else have one of these? Can you give us the serial number? I know of one for sale that I don't believe is any of those being discussed, I might see if the seller is willing to provide the serial.

-- Is our understanding of serial number dating out by over 100000? I don't pretend it's spot-on yet, but out by that much? I really doubt it. That's only really an issue if the TH date is correct, of course.

-- If the production run does span five years plus, how come we see so few examples? (I do kinda think the TH date was a guess and is off, but it helps to ask the questions regardless ;) )

-- Does the watch have a specific purpose that meant it only had a very short production run (going by the serials now, rather than the TH date)? What might that purpose be, given that the dial is quite unlike other Autavias?

-- Is that purpose a military one? The watch looks intended to be highly legible in low light and that often hints at a military use, and also often ends up with some slightly odd-looking dials. Odd case marks can be an indication of that too.

-- A lighthearted question after all those - did anyone else spot the brand of the camera taking the photo in Andreas' original post?!

-- And finally, which Autavia "mystery" will be solved first, this or the "Shauntavia" ( http://www.chronocentric.com/forums/heuer/index.cgi?noframes;read=28740 http://www.chronocentric.com/forums/heuer/index.cgi?noframes;read=16404 http://www.chronocentric.com/forums/heuer/index.cgi?noframes;read=26454 )??

If we can get answers to even most of those, we'll be close to the truth, I think. I'm putting a call in to Fox Mulder...