: Hi fellow Heuer collectors,

: I have noticed some ebay trends regarding
: Heuers lately and I though they could lead
: to an interesting discussion.

: 1. Heuer prices are on the rise. Period.
: No matter what era, no matter what model, no
: matter what condition; if it has
: "Heuer" on the dial it will fetch
: a price 20%-80% higher than it would 6
: months ago.

I agree that prices have been strong lately, but the 80% estimate seems high. My best guess is that prices are up 20 to 40% over this period. There are some "standard items" / "benchmarks" that we should be able to follow. For example, the Steve McQueen Monaco (Blue / White automatic), the three-register white Carrera, and the Master Time (early version). Looking at these three, as some sort of index, I think that prices have been very solid, but it is difficult to quantify.

: Obviously I'm not the only one who noticed
: this.
: Charles Rush wrote in a previous
: post:"Take my word for it, Heuer prices
: are on the rise. Jeff and I have discussed
: this with the possibility that his wedsite
: "On The Dash" has created a
: collectors interest, which is causing price
: to rise. In other words, the information on
: this wedsite is educating new collectors.
: These new collectors are competing for a
: limited number of vintage pieces. They have
: discovered the wonderful world of Heuer
: watches."

: Is this the only explanation?

I believe that having OnTheDash should help the market for the good ones / real ones, and keep the money away from the bad ones / fakes. This makes the market more efficient. It also makes it lots more fun to collect.

: Did the re-issue of the Autavia played a role?
: Do the low interest rates make brand name
: vintage watches look more attractive as an
: investment (not necessarily for big prifit
: but for retaining value)? Have been Heuers
: undevalued in comparison to other brands and
: is this a "corrective move"? Is
: Tag Heuer (the flaghship of LVMH) as a brand
: on the rise and this increases interest in
: vintage Heuers?

It is difficult for me to comment on the strength of Heuers versus the strength of other vintage brands (since I hardly follow any other brands). I believe that TAG-Heuer's Classics are good for the vintage market and vice versa. If people like the re-issue, they may get interested in the originals (or even buy two or three originals instead of one new one.

: It would be very interesting to hear from
people who have been watching ebay for
: years. Are such market fluctations common?
: Do we have a similar case in the past (even
: from another brand) from which we can learn?

: 2. More and more Heuer auctions have private
: bidder-IDs. This is bad IMHO.

I tend to "discount" the private auctions, and even hesitate to participate in them. There are plenty of shills at work in the normal auctions; it is hard to imagine what must occur in the private ones, when we cannot even see the identities of the bidders.

: 3. The buyers are not the "usual
: suspects". Not to mention any IDs but
: there were some ebayers who were actively
: pursuing and winning Heuers. Who are the
: guys that are buying Heuers now? Could they
: be one time buyers? New Heuer collectors? Do
: they buy to keep or to resell in a
: prospective market price increase?

These markets tend to run in cycles. People jump in and buy a few, then move on to something else -- another brand of watch or maybe vintage fountain pens. Other than the dealers, there really are not that many long-term players on ebay. Even the dealers move in and out of brands, with a relatively limited number of long-term players in the Heuer market

: Thanks for reading.

THANKS FOR RAISING THIS INTERESTING SUBJECT. I remember the early days of ebay (say, 1998 or 1999), when you could set an alarm for the middle of the night, snipe a Master Time for $200 or $300, then go back to sleep!! Still, it is better to see the market become broader and more efficient.

Jeff

: Kav