PHi fellow Heuer collectors,

I have noticed some ebay trends regarding Heuers lately and I though they could lead to an interesting discussion.

Hello Kav,

Always a pleasure... I had a full reply I had been working on ready to post last night when a momentary power outage killed it. I guess it's time to replace that old UPS... Sigh... I hope it is at least as decent of a reply this time around but I guess I'll never really know.

1. Heuer prices are on the rise. Period.

I dunno...I still see Heuer's closing from time to time for what I consider a steal these days. But on the whole Autavia's that you could get for X a couple of years ago go for more now a days.

No matter what era, no matter what model, no matter what condition; if it has "Heuer" on the dial it will fetch a price 20%-80% higher than it would 6 months ago.

I don't know that I agree with your range or timeframe on this rise, but...

Obviously I'm not the only one who noticed this.

Charles Rush wrote in a previous post:"Take my word for it, Heuer prices are on the rise. Jeff and I have discussed this with the possibility that his wedsite "On The Dash" has created a collectors interest, which is causing price to rise. In other words, the information on this wedsite is educating new collectors. These new collectors are competing for a limited number of vintage pieces. They have discovered the wonderful world of Heuer watches."

Is this the only explanation?

Nope, there are likely a number of factors for the rise in prices.

Did the re-issue of the Autavia played a role?

Certainly that's one factor, so were the previous introductions in the Classic lines. Also price increases on new product affects prices on vintage pieces... Witness the vintage Zenith El-Primero value increases since Zenith doubled their prices.

Do the low interest rates make brand name vintage watches look more attractive as an investment (not necessarily for big prifit but for retaining value)?

In most instances vintage watches are a terrible investment (unless you invested in Paul Newman Rolexes back in the day.

Have been Heuers undevalued in comparison to other brands and is this a "corrective move"?

While I think some models have been undervalued I thing that on the whole Heuer's have been valued properly (except by some less knowledgeable bidders and sellers).

Is Tag Heuer (the flaghship of LVMH) as a brand on the rise and this increases interest in vintage Heuers?

Um, TAG-Heuer is not the flagship of LVMH, Zenith is. TAG-Heuer is certainly the highest visability of the LVMH brands, and likely the highest volume brand to boot.

I do think that any Classic Re-Issue will increase interest in the original. Look at the Carrera's, Monaco's, and over on the Omega Speedmaster scheme of things the 1957 Speedmaster Re-Issue. A couple of years ago you could get a CK2915 (1957 Vintage Speedmaster) for $3,000 to $3,500, today you better bring $7,000 and that might not be enough.

It would be very interesting to hear from people who have been watching ebay for years. Are such market fluctations common?

Other factors are a change in movement or model. If people perceive a better value in a soon to be discontinued model, the bids it draws will increase.

Another factor is exposure in a film, TV show, or being worn by a celebrity... Witness the bubble of Speedmaster 125 prices during the first year of the Japanese TV Series "Hero"...

Do we have a similar case in the past (even from another brand) from which we can learn?

I think I named a couple above.

2. More and more Heuer auctions have private bidder-IDs. This is bad IMHO.

Agreed. It certainly makes one suspicious of the reasons for the privacy.

3. The buyers are not the "usual suspects". Not to mention any IDs but there were some ebayers who were actively pursuing and winning Heuers. Who are the guys that are buying Heuers now?

I'm really focused on only pieces I feel I need or want for my collection or wear. So if it is something surplus to my needs I don't follow it. And I rarely contact other bidders either so I don't know.

Could they be one time buyers? New Heuer collectors? Do they buy to keep or to resell in a prospective market price increase?

Personally while I think OTD will and probably already does have an effect on the value of Heuer's and other watches it covers, I think that there are other factors at work here.

I find as I go on in my pursuits in watch collecting my collection has devirsified.. I used to be focused on about 4 or 5 brands, and while I've pretty much exhausted my collection's needs in several brands, I have found other brands that interest me. I suspect other collectors who focused on a single or a few brands are also casting their net further afield. I know of one collector who even bought a dashboard set from a brand than he didn't know made them recently...

I've also found that prices in general have increased in the past couple years. Watches that used to go in the $450-600 range now regularly go for $700-900. And this is not brand specific...

eBay is and has been VERY SLOW this summer. It's quieter now than it was the month after 9/11. People aren't selling, and there typically isn't much that's interesting out there. Is this because collectors have over hunted their quary? But diminshed supply equates to higher demand and hence higher prices. I hope it picks up soon.

I also think that some collectors are feeling reasonably content with their collections... Speaking for myself, I've crossed a number of items on my "must have" list in the past year, many of my "would be nice" items, and even indulged in a couple of "it's only going to go for that much?" I'll have a duplicate for that much, purchases. If the bidder's are not as educated bidding and final price can get out of hand.

Thanks for reading.

Thanks for reading this. My only regret is that I didn't have a copy saved of the previous effort... I think it was better than this one. Sigh...

Kav

-- Chuck