This summer, a watch dealer in Amsterdam looked at my business card, which has a picture of a pocket watch on it, and said:

“you still buy pocket watches? There is no money in it for me. Pocket watch collectors are like stamp collectors. They are all either dying or already dead.”

I think there will always be a market for the great stuff, from the Upside-down Airplane stamp to the Patek perpetual calendar wristwatch to the grand complication pocket watch. But, what is going to happen to the not so grand goods?

For a long time I just collected and dealt in pocket watches. The market always had its ups and downs but the interest/market was big enough so that the better part of the not so grand goods, like common high-grade railroad watches were still sought after. Right now, I think for the first time in my almost 40 years in the business, these watches are sort of getting to be like stamps. They have lost a tremendous amount of value and I doubt they will ever come back. A lot of the big collections are either just gathering dust or being sold at auction at cents on the dollar.

Today, wristwatches are hot. Relatively common, jewelry store utility wrist watches like Speedmasters, Autavias, Universal Geneves etc…sort of the RR watches of the wristie side are selling for staggering prices relative to what they brought not too many years ago.

The thing is, just as pocket watches were replaced, as useful technology, by new technology…the wristwatch, wristwatches, as useful technology, are being replaced by cell phones and other web connected devices.

I know, I know…everybody here is going to tell me that the wristwatch is easy to wear and it is a status symbol and that there will always be the enthusiasts who need to have the cool little mechanical marvel on his wrist for whatever the reason. I am one of those enthusiasts so it is hard for me to argue. It is difficult for me to have a rational perspective, but I am seeing the interest in pocket watches wane, I think forever, and I am not so sure it can’t happen to the wrist watch too.

I read with keen interest Rich’s recent “Heuer Market Update”. The following may have been the most interesting passage to me:

“It is interesting to note that the old favourites, 1163T Autavia "Siffert" and the Std production 1133B "McQueen" whilst still being desirable, have seen slightly less demand of late. It is true to say that many other references (like the ones mentioned 5-6 lines above) are now being viewed with equal importance in the eyes of the serious collector.”

Is part of the reason why this is happening with watches like the Siffert that the demand pushed the prices high enough so that enough examples came out of the woodwork to satisfy and cool the demand? This is what happened to “grail” RR watches several years ago.

I am not saying that the wristwatch market is on the brink of a pocket watch like implosion but it will undoubtedly happen at some point. Just like RR watches, there were an awful lot of high grade but utilitarian wristwatches produced. There will always be a market for the true holy grails like the complicated Pateks and the grand complication pocket watches. There will probably continue to be a demand for for the uber condition examples of the high grade utility wristwatches. But, at some point a lot of people will move on and a lot of the middle of the road goods, which are in demand now…won’t be. How will we reach that point?

JohnCote