I am posting the following message for Gianluca (as there were technical problems with his submission) . . . perhaps his formula crashed the server?

Jeff

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Hi all,

Today I was speaking with a colleague (an electronic engineer graduated at Politecnico of Milan) who was telling me about a course he attended some years ago about non-linear systems.

His teacher explained, during this course, that many systems in life can be modelled as non-linear systems, and also non-physical things (as happiness or satisfaction, a love story, and so on) can be roughly modelled in such a way.

To make an example, in some circumstances the happiness (given by a reached goal, for example) could be seen roughly as the derivative (positive or negative) of what you've got (could be a new purchase, an increment of salary, a success in your job or private life, a new girlfriend, and so on), and tends to a sort of “saturation” when you cannot get anymore…

Let’s make an example: if you win a big amount of money and could finally buy the car / watch of your dreams you will have, in a short time, an explosion of happiness, the opposite if you lose such a thing in a short time or suddenly (lose the job, car stolen, wife escaped – OMG, in this case sometimes the derivative is still positive  ). When you can have always more and more the derivative tends to be saturated (that is flat) and you will arrive at a point that you cannot get any satisfaction anymore (this happens, for example, also with assumption of drugs, alcohol, and so on).

So the secret to have an happy life seems to be, at this point, trying to have a positive, constant – or with low oscillations - but not so high derivative in what you can get from your life, not big peaks (that sometimes can be followed by big negative ones) but neither flat (= constant) rate (that is the death of desire).

This makes me think that you can probably model mathematically the satisfaction in collecting (that for me is wearing) vintage watches (I know what you are thinking: “who is his pusher?”):

S = satisfaction in getting (or, better, wearing) a vintage watch;

E = Exclusivity (thus depending on rarity of the watch, difficulties in having discovered it, and so on);

dC = delta cost (that is not the cost itself, but the difference between what the watch actually worth and what you paid for it), so if dC < 0 – you pay a lot for a watch that doesn’t worth that price - can decrease the global satisfaction (at least at my eyes), but averagely speaking of vintage watches (vintage Heuer?) as time goes by the dC should tend to increase itself;

dT = delta time between now (instant when you wear the watch, that is when you evaluate the quantity S) and the last time you have worn it;

L = liking (this is subjective, obviously), that is how much you like the watch (this can vary in positive or negative during the time, if L <<0 then usually you sell the watch…);

SOP = State Of Preservation (conservation) of the watch (that is related to overall conditions and originality);

c1, c2, c3, c4, c5 = coefficients (value to be determined).

S is essentially non-linear because dT and dC are time-dependent (like derivative), also L can vary during life...

So to increase S you have to try to increase all the parts involved into the equation:

E : Try to find / buy exclusive and rare pieces �� this implies a big amount of time in searching the rare piece, surfing the web, visiting old watchmakers and ex-Heuer dealers, calling frequently at phone your contacts or dealers, and so on… or you cannot have time to dedicate to find them but can be so rich to buy everything you want (case of collectors who “rake” watches at any cost), but believe me it gives much more satisfaction discover a rare watch forgotten in a safe than pay the double for a watch finding it on one of the usual websites…

dC : Try to find the bargains (pay a watch less than it worth at the moment you buy it) �� this probably will also increase the eventual gain at the moment you will be tired of it and will resell it (sooner or later everything will be resold, apart from the case that you will leave them as legacy to your sons);

dT : do not wear often a watch, or sooner or later you will get bored �� if you have many you can wear them in rotation, so averagely you will rarely wear every watch you get (assuming you wear all of them sooner or later). In addition rarely wearing a watch decrease the risk of beating or damaging it, so will indirectly not decrease the SOP factor;

L : buy a watch because you like it and NOT because is a money investment or because the taste of the collectors is moving towards that model. If a watch doesn’t speak to you immediately when you buy it probably will never speak, so it will remain unworn in the safe…

SOP: Try to buy perfect - or almost perfect - watches, with original and nicely faded lume, beautiful dials, and so on, better if unworn or at least not damaged. If they aren’t perfect try to improve them (making them lightly restore by a skilled watchmaker or replacing damaged parts as hands, bezel, pushers, with NOS or mint ones). NOS watches are a singular case (see below).

Note that L and SOC are not directly related (I can have a great satisfaction wearing a watch I like very much even if not perfect, also because there is no risk to further damage it.. ) but both contribute, with different weight, to the overall satisfaction.

Note also that the cost of the watch (what you paid for it) enters in this equation not directly but as difference dC, that is in my opinion the satisfaction is not directly dependent on the net cost BUT dependent on how much I paid for it related to how much I would have averagely paid. I have bought some watches paying them more than they worth (that is, if I would resell them now I will probably lose money) and this honestly hurts me every time I wear them (I always think: “Uhm I didn’t do an affair even if I love them”).

A particular case is given by NOS (New Old Stock) watches: for them you have maximum SOP (they are perfect or almost perfect), but, if you decide to wear them, you risk to decrease immediately the SOP so many of us decide not to wear them… in this case dT will increase (tends to +infinite) BUT S (satisfaction in wearing the watch) tends to zero. Sooner or later you will resell it, probably gain some money, but you will never have enjoyed it (and probably you will regret it). In addition probably dC < 0 (you paid an extra-cost due to the only fact is NOS). Despite of this, every collector would find NOS watches, but this is another equation (that is the satisfaction of HAVING them rather than WEARING them).

Conclusion: I have maximum satisfaction when I can wear an exclusive (or rare) watch, that I didn’t pay a fortune respect to what it actually worth, that I didn’t wear long, that I like (and I bought as I liked it) and that is in mint (or very good) conditions…

Accepting suggestions to improve this equation… LOL

Gianluca