: I can't comment on what happened at Antiquorum but describing the
: current market for vintage Heuers as a "bloodbath" is
: just plain wrong.

: A bloodbath is the share price of something like Citigroup, which
: went from $50 18 months ago to $1 yesterday. OK, that is an
: extreme one, but even a broad based stock index like the Dow is
: down to levels last seen in the late 1990's.

: So when I can buy a mint 1133 Mcqueen Monaco for $750, or a Viceroy
: for $150, then we can talk about bloodbath.

: We saw a PVD Monaco trade for a huge premium to the last price, ok,
: people comment on the high end holding (ok, increasing
: significantly) it's value, but even the low end like Viceroys
: are slightly softer, but certainly not back to values they were
: three years ago, when you could easily find a nice Viceroy for
: $500-600.

: So why are Heuer's holding their value? Are all Heuer collectors
: billionaires unaffected by the recession? I doubt it! I believe
: the reason Heuer's have kept their value is the same reason the
: gold price has doubled from $500 an ounce in 2007 to near $1000
: today. The supply of gold on earth is limited and rare. People
: want to spend money on something they know is real. All
: financial instruments are distrusted, but with a physical
: commodity you know where you are.

: I'm not surprised the value of new or near new watches has dropped
: massively. If I look in a watch magazine there seems to be a
: thousand different manufacturers each producing what seems like
: a thousand different limited rare models. All those models have
: no history and their value is based on the fact that they are
: expensive. I'm not surprised watches like that are in a
: "bloodbath". But I don't see that in the watch markets
: I monitor, vintage Heuer, Omega and Breitling. There you have a
: finite amount of watches, with no new production. So for me it's
: more like gold.

To all these excellent points, one must overlay the collector/utility value of th fixed supply of vintage Heuers. The gold analogy is close, but does not take into account the fact that Heuers are not fungible; each piece has unique characteristics that derive from the variation in model types, materials, wear, production dates, etc. Watches of course are also highly functional both as pieces of art and for time and recordkeeping. In effect, the market for vintage heuers is like a closed-end fund where the shares have enduring appeal because each one is unique and will never be made again. What you may see is that the shape of the demand curve is getting steeper--i.e., the clearing price for the more common models will slip somewhat.