: The following is an email I received from AstorLive, a fairly large
: eBay business seller. Slanted to Patek Philippe's, as this is
: what they mostly auction/sell.
: Maybe other's will find some interest in reading

: Watch Market Update
: by Trent Crowley
: November 1, 2009
: It's been too long since my last watch market update and I've been
: searching for the right time which has evaded me until now....I
: just reread my last update from March 2009 and I must say I was
: right on target based on the market and where it headed in 2009.
: Maybe I can be so fortunate as I opine about the days ,weeks and
: months ahead leading us into 2010.The good news is the watch
: market has been trending higher monthly since about June and
: this is due largely to economic uncertainties that the world is
: facing today....If like me you believe these uncertainties will
: continue into 2010 then collectible wristwatches will be a place
: of safe haven and appreciation.
: We just returned last week from the final International Wristwatch
: and Jewelry Guild show in New York for 2009 and found the
: optimism there was better than I have seen in a few
: years.....dealers were back on track with their inventories as
: most have sold off their old stock that was overpriced and
: everyone seems to be on the same page for now...bottom line is
: all the major dealers have taken their hits and ready to deal at
: the new market levels. I found that inventory for modern
: production Patek Philippe models such as the 5960, 5970, 5070,
: 5980, 5712, 5102, 5101's have been greatly reduced and all of
: these models are trading about 5-10% higher than in June 09...so
: we are seeing an uptick based on supply and demand which is a
: great sign for everyone. Speculation on these models has left
: for now but that too is a positive sign as the market is
: building a base without speculation and hype. It's being driven
: by pure passionate collectors who want to invest their money in
: something that will hold value and has potential for
: appreciation both now and later.
: After speaking to many dealers at the watch show it was evident to
: all that the Asian market is very much alive and well and
: currently leading the way globally especially in watches......Of
: course with the US dollar at an all time low against other
: currencies this makes a huge difference. We believe this trend
: will continue in 2010 as the dollar continues to weaken and
: other currencies rise to new levels offering our international
: dealers and collectors their best opportunities to do business
: here in the US.
: I've made friends with many major dealers and collectors from
: Bangkok, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan and all of them keep
: telling me they believe Asia as a whole will continue to
: strengthen in 2010 and I believe they are absolutely correct.
: This alone will drive the watch market higher as Asians have a
: passion for watches that I have not seen anywhere else in the
: world and this is good news for the global watch market.
: The summer and fall auction season for Antiquorum, Christies,
: Sotheby's, Patrizzi & Co all produced reasonable market
: results and nothing worth noting sold above and beyond
: expectations. I will note the Patek Philippe vintage market is
: down at the moment especially in average pieces. Prices for Ref
: 1463, 130, 3448, 3450, 591, 1579 and others seem to be trading
: well below where they should be....I tend to look for values
: outside the normal range and today that place is vintage Patek
: Philippe. I believe now is the best time I have seen in 10-15
: years to buy high end vintage Pateks. In fact I am certain they
: offer the best place to be if you can be guided through the maze
: of subjection that is needed to buy the right piece. Also, I
: love the fact that you don't have to worry whether the watch is
: sealed in plastic or dated recently etc.....The key in buying a
: vintage Patek is to make sure it has an original certificate or
: extract of the archive, good solid hallmarks , nice dial, case
: and movement and you cannot go wrong..... again it's a market
: that requires more due diligence when stepping out for a nice
: piece but the reward is worth the effort.....Nothing compares to
: strapping on a Patek Philippe vintage timepiece and realizing
: nobody else in your circle has this watch ....Nothing like the
: pride of ownership especially when its something special and
: unique.
: One area I would like to discuss is discontinued Patek Philippe
: models......I have said for several years the best place to be
: is in discontinued models such as the 3974, 2499, 2497, 3970,
: 5004, 5050, 3940, 3712....basically anything no longer in
: production by Patek is the best place to be simply because Patek
: is no longer putting these on the market thereby allowing
: econometrics (supply and demand) to come into to play. We all
: know that human nature is driven by wanting what it cannot have.
: This principle works well here and if you are a serious or novice
: collector wanting to get more involved in the collectible watch
: market then you will not find a better time than today.....The
: market for all of the above and others offer tremendous
: investment and enjoyment opportunity....I've had many of you
: email or call ˇin the last few months asking me in particular
: about the 5004's, 3970's and so on.....each time I say the same
: thing....all of these are excellent timepieces to collect for
: both passion and appreciation....You will not go wrong at the
: current levels we are seeing today.
: I will note that one thing I have noticed since the beginning of
: the year is that high end minute repeaters have become very
: scarce and the ones that were sold off early in 2009 due to
: financial reasons have all been sold and on the wrists of new
: owners who made very good decisions.....we saw 3939's minute
: repeater tourbillons selling below 300K US and our clients are
: still calling and asking for more.....Those days seem to be over
: for now.....I only wish we could have obtained more at the old
: levels.....Those who made the leap of faith will be greatly
: rewarded in the years ahead.
: Until now the secondary market was yielding prices well below the
: Patek Philippe boutique price and while this continues to be the
: case at the moment I see this gap closing quickly based on the
: US dollar decline and high demand for the very best Patek has to
: offer. I still believe the most beautiful classic all time
: vintage and modern repeater is the 3974 in all metals. You will
: not find a better Patek complication that bridges both the
: modern and vintage production than this model.
: It was produced in 1989 as the first official minute repeater
: perpetual production timepiece to celebrate Patek's 150th
: anniversary and according to auction information less than 100
: pieces exist in all metals.
: We have sold many of these over the last 20 years and still to date
: I don't find a better all around ˇminute repeater.
: My advise to the elite collector is you must own this watch or your
: collection is not complete or never will be.
: I guess this alone will keep this a timeless and priceless treasure
: to collect, admire and love.
: Now, where do we go from here is the next question that must be
: addressed. For those of you that know me closely you might think
: I am the eternal optimist and I guess in one sense I am and
: always be as I believe that things always get better eventually
: but today my contrarian view remains. I believe we must continue
: to be cautious as we head into 2010 and keep looking for the
: best pieces at the right prices......Even though prices have
: been moving higher over the last 4-6 months we continue to be
: conservative in our approach knowing that collecting is not a
: sprint but a marathon and that we always have TIME on our side.
: I do believe we will continue to see a decline in the US dollar
: over the next year if even only slightly more than now. Also, I
: expect the Asian and other emerging markets continue to enter
: the collectible watch market pushing demand to its highest
: levels ever. As I stated 2 years ago this baby has legs and is
: no longer going to settle crawling around when it can walk.....I
: believe we will continue to see this market emerge in 2010 with
: many new and exciting opportunities for all of us who love
: collecting the very best timepieces in the world.
: On another note I wanted to share with all my global friends my
: sincere thanks for your loyalty and partnership these last 12
: years while we have made the Internet our home. Just recently
: while in New York I had the pleasure to sit down with a client
: from Taiwan over coffee and it dawned on me while our cultures
: may be different our pleasures of indulging ourselves in
: collecting is the most common ground I have ever
: witnessed....What a pleasure to be a part of such a wonderful
: industry with the finest people from around the world.....I tip
: my hat to all of you who I know as friend and partner.
: You truly are the reason I love what I do.
: As always I look forward to hearing from each of you in the days
: ahead.
: Your partner in TIME,
: Trent Crowley
: President & CEO