zOwie Omega Discussion Forum

: Great thread Sam.
: I tend to think that things have slowed simply because of the
: economy. Even people of means slow down purchasing when the
: economy
: is sour. People are holding on to what funds they have and are less
: likely to buy anything. On the other hand, I've bought 5 watches
: this year with
: one being in the 5k range. There are more deals on the sales forums
: than ever and if you are looking for a grail piece, now is the
: time to buy.

I would agree that bargains are there to be had, and prices on what I will call "marginally collectible" will continue to drop. What do I mean by "marginally collectible"? Where the prices paid for pieces that were not few in number, not horologically distinguished, and not instantly understandable why they demanded a premium reached stratospheric levels, prices will continue to fall.

One example that you and your brother David pointed out was the prices demanded for Rolex "Double Red" Seadwellers which purportedly reached triple digits, are now trading for $20k. (I say purportedly because I haven't followed the prices.) That's a drop in prices of 80% . . . if these figures are accurate.

However, there are also fewer watches on the sales forums, because the "watch flippers" or more accurately "watch renters" have been driven out of the market. When you could buy and flip a watch for a small loss or even a gain, there were many who did so. Now -- not so much, as prices, if not falling, certainly aren't rising.

To that point, I recently noted IWC cut their prices by about 8% -- including on gold watches. When was the last time the prices went down on a Swiss make?

: I'm in agreement with your statement about friends and watches. It
: make little difference to me what others bought and I wouldn't
: buy anything just because someone else had one. I have done it
: before, it didn't work out well and I won't do it again. I tend
: to
: think that may be somewhat of a problem with the younger collector
: and maybe not so much with the more seasoned guys and older
: collectors.
: I know my mistakes are becoming fewer and fewer on what I buy, I
: still make them, just not so much. I fully agree with the
: "button pushing"
: statement, it still affects me but I'm better prepared to resist
: it, it that makes any sense..........

So, it doesn't affect you regarding what others buy, just the fact the others are buying. That's what "pushes the button".

More seasoned collectors probably buy fewer watches, and make fewer mistakes, but on average buy more expensive watches. Face it, you already have all the cheap ones you want!

: I tend to think that the forums will become less busy as time goes
: on. Some may disagree, thats fine, but there is a general unrest
: going on in middle America, its not just the economy. I believe its
: the erosion of what people like us hold dear. I think that the
: unrest
: will get greater and people will be less likely to communicate
: about hobbies and such. Its taken somewhat of a backseat to the
: economy,
: our healthcare issues and our representation in government. These
: thing are more important to the individuals that can afford to
: collect watches
: as we all know its an expensive habit as proven by my being
: broke............that make any sense whatsoever?

I agree with your sentiment about the forums being slower in the future, and somewhat with your reasoning as to the cause. However, I think there is a broader and much more pervasive cause that is ultimately more controlling.

First, most forum members are male and between the ages of 40 and 60. We are old enough to remember having mechanical timepieces and that a man wore a watch if he were a responsible member of society (or perceived as one).

To your point, the forum members are now worried about their employment and their retirement, and have less time to consider their expensive obsession and less resources to devote to it. Further, conspicuous consumption of any variety is currently out of style.

But ultimately, I think we have seen the peak of mechanical wristwatch collecting.

The fascination that our generation and those of our age have for these tiny machines is not shared by those younger than us. They have no connection to the history or the heritage. Those younger than us buy Seamasters because of James Bond and Panerais because they are fashionable. There are exceptions, of course, but most see a mechanical watch as an expensive fashion indulgence -- which is now out of fashion.

Not that mechanical watches are anything but an expensive obsession -- they are. But our generation and age have a connection which justifies the indulgence for many of us.

I think that mechanical wristwatches will become a much smaller collectible market in the way that pocket watches are today.

A generation ago, pocket watches were the collectable timepiece for our parents, peaking in the 1980s where three-piece suits gave a pocket watch a brief usable life. In the same way that mechanical wristwatches were the prized possession of our forebears that quartz obsoleted before our eyes, pocket watches became an old man's anachronistic bauble during our parent's lives. But they prized the pocket watches that their elders used, caressed and valued and had a connection with them.

Today, there is essentially no market and no large scale production of mechanical pocket watches. I do not think mechanical wristwatches will decline to that state, but I think the market and models produced will never again be as large as it is today. We are seeing the beginning of a long decline of mechanical watches, both new production and in the market for vintage collectibles.

I am not saying this with regret or with rancor, just a factual recognition of what is most likely to happen.

:) So want to sell your collection really cheap? Get out now before the market really crashes!!