my question is more general, and would apply across the world of vintage watch collecting. Here's what I have been wondering:
- we do not have accurate data regarding the quantity of Monacos, Carreras, or other models that Heuer produced each year.
- we can make pretty good guesses / estimates regarding the quantity of each model that come onto the market each year [let's guess 80 to 100 for the automatic Monacos], and we'll call it the Number Currently Offered ("NCO").
- there are other brands for which production data seems to be more readily available; I am just guessing, but it seems as though there is "ballpark" / approximate data for certain models of Rolexes, Omegas and Breitlings (For example, based on serial numbers, I have heard a fairly specific estimate of the number of Breitling Cosmonautes produced in 1962.). . . let's call this the Number Originally Produced ("NOP")
- If we know the Number Originally Produced (NOP), and we know the approximate number offered per year in the current market (NCO), for these other brands/ models, then we can establish a "survival rate" / "percentage offered" rate. (for example, that one / two / three percent of the original production comes onto the vintage / internet market each year). . . let's call this the Percentage Offered Annually ("POA")
- in the case of Heuers, can we use some estimate of this Percentage Offered Annually to work from the Number Currently Offered [80 to 100 per year, for the Monacos], to make an estimate of the Number Originally Produced?
To put this in simpler terms, if we see 15 of the Siffert Automatic Autavias (second or third execution) offered each year, can we estimate how many were actually produced?
I will plan to refine the wording of this question, and post it again (and also post on other forums). Does this make any sense (or do I need to try again, after a good night's sleep and less morning caffeine)??
Jeff
