I agree with most of what you are saying.

Particular items do spike up on occasion, then settle back down to the original levels. Other times, they spike up and then settle in at a lower level that is still well above the previous levels. It's often difficult to distinguish between these temporary "blips" and longer-term changes in the prices. Add in the volatility of currency exchange rates, and the formula gets even more complicated.

I still maintain that the pricing decision made by one uninformed seller, using BuyItNow, tells us nothing about market values. I am not an economist or appraiser, but the usual definition of market value or fair value begins with a phrase about "a willing buyer and a willing seller, neither being under abnormal pressure and both being fully informed." When the seller has absolutely no information about what he is selling (the $9.95 Heuer Autavia GMT), it tells us absolutely nothing about the market value.

All this, in my humble and uninformed opinion.

Jeff

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

: I have watched the Autavia GMT since 2000 (seen
: 15-20 in all), and the majority sold around
: $750-1000. This $1000+ wave is only in the
: last 2-3 months; actually its the exception.
: If you get 2 guys in a pixxing match sure it
: will go to the roof. But, veterans will know
: that another will show up for half the
: price.

: I saw at least 3 last year that went for
: $500-750, 2 out of australia; i think chuck
: got the other; all were w/bands.

: I sold one in July with steel link band for
: $1050, bought it for $1000 a week before.

: So, ebay the great value leveller has pointed
: out, if you are methodical you can find
: these at the right price. Dealers do a 100%
: mark-up ie, the one at artoftime.

: I have seen this happen with Flightmaster,
: Zenith El Primero Blue Sqaure case, and
: Zenith El Primero Pilot Diver....many double
: in price for no apparent reason (do a sort
: on the recent flightmaster NOS's, which are
: usually $600-800).
: But I have purchased/seen all go for $500-800.

: That's the beauty of this, no dealer, seller or
: heavy wallets exter power, its all timing.