The following is an email I received from AstorLive, a fairly large eBay business seller. Slanted to Patek Philippe's, as this is what they mostly auction/sell.
Maybe other's will find some interest in reading

Watch Market Update
by Trent Crowley
November 1, 2009
It's been too long since my last watch market update and I've been searching for the right time which has evaded me until now....I just reread my last update from March 2009 and I must say I was right on target based on the market and where it headed in 2009. Maybe I can be so fortunate as I opine about the days ,weeks and months ahead leading us into 2010.The good news is the watch market has been trending higher monthly since about June and this is due largely to economic uncertainties that the world is facing today....If like me you believe these uncertainties will continue into 2010 then collectible wristwatches will be a place of safe haven and appreciation.
We just returned last week from the final International Wristwatch and Jewelry Guild show in New York for 2009 and found the optimism there was better than I have seen in a few years.....dealers were back on track with their inventories as most have sold off their old stock that was overpriced and everyone seems to be on the same page for now...bottom line is all the major dealers have taken their hits and ready to deal at the new market levels. I found that inventory for modern production Patek Philippe models such as the 5960, 5970, 5070, 5980, 5712, 5102, 5101's have been greatly reduced and all of these models are trading about 5-10% higher than in June 09...so we are seeing an uptick based on supply and demand which is a great sign for everyone. Speculation on these models has left for now but that too is a positive sign as the market is building a base without speculation and hype. It's being driven by pure passionate collectors who want to invest their money in something that will hold value and has potential for appreciation both now and later.
After speaking to many dealers at the watch show it was evident to all that the Asian market is very much alive and well and currently leading the way globally especially in watches......Of course with the US dollar at an all time low against other currencies this makes a huge difference. We believe this trend will continue in 2010 as the dollar continues to weaken and other currencies rise to new levels offering our international dealers and collectors their best opportunities to do business here in the US.
I've made friends with many major dealers and collectors from Bangkok, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan and all of them keep telling me they believe Asia as a whole will continue to strengthen in 2010 and I believe they are absolutely correct.
This alone will drive the watch market higher as Asians have a passion for watches that I have not seen anywhere else in the world and this is good news for the global watch market.
The summer and fall auction season for Antiquorum, Christies, Sotheby's, Patrizzi & Co all produced reasonable market results and nothing worth noting sold above and beyond expectations. I will note the Patek Philippe vintage market is down at the moment especially in average pieces. Prices for Ref 1463, 130, 3448, 3450, 591, 1579 and others seem to be trading well below where they should be....I tend to look for values outside the normal range and today that place is vintage Patek Philippe. I believe now is the best time I have seen in 10-15 years to buy high end vintage Pateks. In fact I am certain they offer the best place to be if you can be guided through the maze of subjection that is needed to buy the right piece. Also, I love the fact that you don't have to worry whether the watch is sealed in plastic or dated recently etc.....The key in buying a vintage Patek is to make sure it has an original certificate or extract of the archive, good solid hallmarks , nice dial, case and movement and you cannot go wrong..... again it's a market that requires more due diligence when stepping out for a nice piece but the reward is worth the effort.....Nothing compares to strapping on a Patek Philippe vintage timepiece and realizing nobody else in your circle has this watch ....Nothing like the pride of ownership especially when its something special and unique.
One area I would like to discuss is discontinued Patek Philippe models......I have said for several years the best place to be is in discontinued models such as the 3974, 2499, 2497, 3970, 5004, 5050, 3940, 3712....basically anything no longer in production by Patek is the best place to be simply because Patek is no longer putting these on the market thereby allowing econometrics (supply and demand) to come into to play. We all know that human nature is driven by wanting what it cannot have.
This principle works well here and if you are a serious or novice collector wanting to get more involved in the collectible watch market then you will not find a better time than today.....The market for all of the above and others offer tremendous investment and enjoyment opportunity....I've had many of you email or call ˇin the last few months asking me in particular about the 5004's, 3970's and so on.....each time I say the same thing....all of these are excellent timepieces to collect for both passion and appreciation....You will not go wrong at the current levels we are seeing today.
I will note that one thing I have noticed since the beginning of the year is that high end minute repeaters have become very scarce and the ones that were sold off early in 2009 due to financial reasons have all been sold and on the wrists of new owners who made very good decisions.....we saw 3939's minute repeater tourbillons selling below 300K US and our clients are still calling and asking for more.....Those days seem to be over for now.....I only wish we could have obtained more at the old levels.....Those who made the leap of faith will be greatly rewarded in the years ahead.
Until now the secondary market was yielding prices well below the Patek Philippe boutique price and while this continues to be the case at the moment I see this gap closing quickly based on the US dollar decline and high demand for the very best Patek has to offer. I still believe the most beautiful classic all time vintage and modern repeater is the 3974 in all metals. You will not find a better Patek complication that bridges both the modern and vintage production than this model.
It was produced in 1989 as the first official minute repeater perpetual production timepiece to celebrate Patek's 150th anniversary and according to auction information less than 100 pieces exist in all metals.
We have sold many of these over the last 20 years and still to date I don't find a better all around ˇminute repeater.
My advise to the elite collector is you must own this watch or your collection is not complete or never will be.
I guess this alone will keep this a timeless and priceless treasure to collect, admire and love.
Now, where do we go from here is the next question that must be addressed. For those of you that know me closely you might think I am the eternal optimist and I guess in one sense I am and always be as I believe that things always get better eventually but today my contrarian view remains. I believe we must continue to be cautious as we head into 2010 and keep looking for the best pieces at the right prices......Even though prices have been moving higher over the last 4-6 months we continue to be conservative in our approach knowing that collecting is not a sprint but a marathon and that we always have TIME on our side. I do believe we will continue to see a decline in the US dollar over the next year if even only slightly more than now. Also, I expect the Asian and other emerging markets continue to enter the collectible watch market pushing demand to its highest levels ever. As I stated 2 years ago this baby has legs and is no longer going to settle crawling around when it can walk.....I believe we will continue to see this market emerge in 2010 with many new and exciting opportunities for all of us who love collecting the very best timepieces in the world.
On another note I wanted to share with all my global friends my sincere thanks for your loyalty and partnership these last 12 years while we have made the Internet our home. Just recently while in New York I had the pleasure to sit down with a client from Taiwan over coffee and it dawned on me while our cultures may be different our pleasures of indulging ourselves in collecting is the most common ground I have ever witnessed....What a pleasure to be a part of such a wonderful industry with the finest people from around the world.....I tip my hat to all of you who I know as friend and partner.
You truly are the reason I love what I do.
As always I look forward to hearing from each of you in the days ahead.
Your partner in TIME,
Trent Crowley
President & CEO