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Discussion Topic: Four Auctions, Numerous Questions

OK, just for fun, let’s visualize four auctions, as follows:
  • Auction One -- Auction One consists of 100 vintage Heuers, all of which are either true NOS or in near mint condition. The watches range from the common (Viceroy) to the super rare (Chronomatics and PVD Monaco), but all are in the same condition . . . true NOS or near mint.

  • Auction Two -- Auction Two consists of 100 vintage Heuers, all of them being very nice samples. Condition ranges from near mint to excellent, and all the watches are entirely authentic and original (other than crystals). There are no issues of authenticity or put together watches.

  • Auction Three -- Auction Three consists of 100 vintage Heuers, with most of them being having visible problems or being previous or future “projects”; most have some combination of incorrect hands, pushers, crowns, bezels, etc.; we see the occasional refinished dial and even a few “frankens”.

  • Auction Four -- Auction Four is our perfect “Bell Curve” of vintage Heuers. Of the 100 lots, 75 watches are of the type offered in Auction Two (near mint to excellent); 13 of them would qualify for Auction One (NOS or near mint) and 12 of them being projects or problems, that somehow slipped into the auction.

And now let’s address a few questions about these auctions:
  • Which auction will hold the most interest for you, as a possible bidder?

  • Will there be enough bidders to support Auction One, with its NOS and near mint pieces? Can the market absorb this auction of 100 prime watches, with the NOS / mint premium for so many watches? Will this auction need to find new bidders, from the high-end Hollywood or London scene?

  • In Auction One, will we see NOS premiums, for the best samples of the more common Heuers . . . will Viceroys and two-register manual Carreras attract these NOS premiums?

  • Can Auction Three be successful, even if not supported by the online communities? Will there be bidders in the room and on the phone, even if those collectors who wear the “halos” choose not to participate?

  • If Auction Three were to occur first (say, in November 2009), with poor results, will this have an adverse effect on the vintage Heuer market? Will there be a cloud over this market, because of this auction, loaded with “problem” watches?

  • Can Auction One or Auction Two give the market a "lift", in the style of Omegamania, or was Omegamania a unique event? If the market can absorb the watches offered in Auction One or Auction Two, will it be flat or tired afterwards?

  • Are Auctions Two and Four, with the preponderance of really nice (but not NOS) watches, more attractive for the average, serious collector?

Let me add, that I know very little about the auction business, and cannot begin to understand who will be “in the room” and bidding at any of these auctions. Perhaps some of our experts, in auctions or the way markets behave, can express their views. Fee free to answer any of these questions or pose your own questions.

Jeff

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