: How do you see it?

Jeff,

The warning to watch collectors is...When the market for a particular watch is hot and on the way up, be careful of leaping into the fire by paying the rising prices for sub-standard, sub-quality examples of the hot watch. In the end quality rises and will remain desirable. Market heat will always bring the goods out of the dark in into the market. For example we have seen a lot more early 2446 Autavias since the prices have spiked. We have seen the good, the bad, and the ugly. We have seen the real and the cobbled together and the fake. I think that 5 years from now this watch will still be very desirable but only the best will bring the top prices. A lot of folk who have "invested" in lower quality examples at big prices will be stuck. I think the same will be true of other hot watches and fad watches. I think we are probably already seeing that the market heat cannot keep burning under some of the hot Enicars.

Quality always rises to the top. Top brands...see Ferrari...see Rolex...see Patek stay at the top. Top examples of second and third tier brands usually hold value. The common, the off quality, the cobbled together always fall.

The pocket watch marked right now is a great testament. 10-12 years ago the pocket watch market was hot. Common railroad watches were selling on eBay and at marts for unheard of prices. Sellers were "fixing up" everything in their drawers and everything they could buy and making huge returns. Now eBay prices are 1/3 of what they were. When you go to a big mart there are lots of dealers and older collectors who need to liquidate and who have tables full of hundreds of watches. The same people are at every mart. The watches never move until they get desperate/realistic and take the losses.

For me the lesson is buy quality...meaning buy brand, buy model, buy originality, buy condition. Make all buying decisions based on those criteria...BUT...Buy what you enjoy and what makes you happy because, and especially if you pay top/auction prices for goods...you may own your watches for a while.

JohnCote