I believe that yesterday's Christie's auction confirmed what we have known for a long time -- the watches that do well at the auctions by the major auction houses are the special watches, either because they are very rare models or because they are in exceptionally good condition. Yesterday, we saw a handful of Heuers that met these criteria, and they did well. The Indy Autavia met both these criteria, and so it fetched $200,000.

There is always a certain amount of "filler" in these auctions -- ordinary watches, that we can find on eBay or the usual dealer sites. These watches did not do well, perhaps being burdened by the commissions that were in play. Watching five hours and almost 250 lots of the auction, I looked on the screen at some modern, pre-owned watches and wondered why anyone would buy it at Christie's (on 49th Street), when there were dozens of the same watch for sale on 47th Street. Same with some of the vintage watches, that we see every day on eBay. Still, there was not too much of this filler, and I understand the need to fill out the catalog.

I am optimistic that the market for the nice Heuers has survived a lot of recent "supply", and that demand remains strong. Hopefully, the market catches its breath during the summer, and then we start the build-up to Phillips in November. I am confident that the Crosthwaite / Gavin watches will do well, as I imagine all of them to be special watches -- either because they are very rare or in amazing condition. We have been spoiled by seeing these beautiful watches in their books, and now we will see them on the big stage in Geneva.

And I agree with Paul on one key point -- it's nice not to have had too many "outliers" in the Spring 2017 auctions. These $47,000 Solunagraphs and $60,000 Franken Rindts are bad for the broad market and bad for people trying to buy and sell watches, in the ordinary course. I suspect that many of us had transactions blow apart when someone saw the same watch sell at 3X the right price.

Jeff

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

: Brook

: I'll quickly answer your points with some additions at the end,
: just my thoughts.

: 1. June is never a good time to sell, I would definitely not put an
: ordinary watch to auction in June.
: 2. Agree, this is what I've been saying for years, the market is
: about "trophies", the more mature the market gets this
: will be amplified further still.
: 3. I doubt it, but who can tell, possibly for average/poor
: condition or expecting over market value surprises for ordinary
: watches. Check back in a year and see.
: 4. I'd be disappointed if they didn't achieve above 2010 prices ;)
: Our reserves will be very realistic, so you shouldn't be put off
: bidding ;)
: 5. PVD Monaco in average condition, price seemed pretty good to me,
: to expect more is crazy imo, perhaps your own expectations are
: too high. Phillips sold a "best ever condition" one
: for $64k not too long ago, so compared against that it maybe
: overperformed, Monaco values are flat over past few years. I'll
: take $64k for mine in Nov :) The 2446cSN, yes you could say
: based on some metrics this was a little low, although it's not a
: grail screwback case Autavia, or 60s Carrera grail or
: "sailing watch" which is where the market is focused
: right now. Also the hands are service, a small point, but yes
: this is one you may think was a little low but not by much more
: than $10k or so.
: 6. I'll add that some of the reserves were obviously too high in my
: opinion (and to others), so I suspected those watches would not
: sell. Generally the average watches made average money, the
: grails made strong money, and as always there was the odd watch
: that went higher or lower than expected. Seems usual to me and
: healthy, unlike the stupid outliers of last year where a couple
: of watches that obviously didn't deserve to make crazy money
: did, Personally I hope we've seen the end of those kind of
: "outliers" as they make no sense to anyone and confuse
: the market.

: Cheers
: R