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Re: Validated versus (Irrational) Outliers


My take (trying to be totally impartial) is pretty similar, although I'd want to see an auction sale of an all lume hand 2446 before I consider that level a normal price. It is for sure one of the best and rarest of all vintage pieces so it makes sense to be valued highly. Rindts rose with hype for the re-edition, they are actually relatively common for Heuers, because unlike the Carrera one dial was in production for several years with virtually no alternative. Great watches but if I'm honest I'm not sure if $45k is market for the best, they seem a little all over the place and would say average price paid for good ones was less but the best deserve to be much higher than average ones. The OB was from memory b&p and new old stock (?) and I believe a rare variant in such guise is highly unusual so deserves a large premium, $50k back then was big so we would need to wait for another similar example to make judgments. Tthe recent one for sale in Geneva looked a good buy. Carrera 2447SN agreed, Orvis agreed x2 (the Heuer and A&F would be valued higher too), IDF agree.

As you say just our opinions of course :)


: Rich:

: It's fun to read your reference to the "outliers", and to
: review the six highest price sales of Fall 2016, to consider
: which have been "validated" since then and which
: remain as "outliers". I'll give it a go, and we can
: see whether others might see it differently. Of course, this is
: all just an estimate / guess, without actually seeing and
: comparing some of the watches, in the metal. Autavia, Ref 2446
: (Big Subs), for $125,000 -- of course, we saw the "all
: lume" version sell for cloase to $200,000; I would think
: that a really nice 2446 "Big Subs", with these second
: execution hands could sell for $125,000 in todays market, so
: I'll call it "validated".
: Autavia, Ref 2446 (Rindt), for $43,750 . . . I believe that we
: are seeing this kind of price for the very best Rindts, so I
: will say that it is
: "validated"; Carrera, Ref 2447
: SN, for $40,480 . . . earlier today, Christie's sold one for
: almost $35,000, so I will call that
: "validated" Orvis Solunagraph,
: for $50,600 . . . made no sense then, and it makes no sense now
: . . . definitely an "outlier";
: Autavia, Ref 1163 (Orange Boy), for $50,000 . . . this one is
: difficult to classify . . . even if this one was in the best
: condition we have ever seen, I wonder whether this $50,000 is
: attainable today . . . maybe / maybe not . . . so let
: me pass on classifying this one. Autavia Ref 113.603
: (IDF-issued), for $63,614 . . . we saw two of these sell above
: $60,000 . . . still, I'll go out on the limb, and say that we
: saw two "outliers" / irrational
: prices. How do you see it?

: Jeff


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