I think your overall analysis and predictions seem quite reasonable. The scarce will remain scarce both in terms of complete watches and parts. With fewer exotic and rare pieces coming up for sale people will be making the effort to contact known owners of their targeted model in the hope to arrange a private transaction. Further to this people holding watches will be focussed upon getting some the watches they hold off to a specialist for a "Spa" treatment. The whole time being aware that the cost of the "Spa" will be recouped in overall value but also greatly increase their own enjoyment of the watch whilst they hold it.

With the general realisation now that the spare parts to -
A. complete projects
B. replace worn items
C. correct watches with the wrong components
- are much harder than anticipated to find i also imagine seeing more project watches being offered up for sale by owners that cant wait the distance to find their components.

A further trend i predict is the rising cost of complete working movements. The Cal.11 & 12 movements in particular are more and more in demand and we will see all the lower valued watches that carry these movements (barrel Carrera's, Viceroy's, Daytona etc) being targeted and broken up for spares. We will start seeing these movements trading in the 750+ Euro range in a very short period of time.
More specialised Heuer marked movements such as Landeron 189, Valj.72 GMT , Cal.14 and Valj.7740 will become mirages as the desperate seekers start buying complete watches in a poor state in order to give their treasured time piece a heart transplant.

All the first edition models will come under fucus. This is due to the "Origin of the species" theory as collectors feel justified reaching that bit further into their budgets for these pieces as they feel they can justify it being the father of a series.
- Dauphine hand Autavia
- Poly back Carrera
- Chronomatics (naturally)
- Cal.11 Carrera & Autavia variants with 3,6,9,12 hour subdials
- 1163 Autavia GMT 1-24 bezel

It might be nice to hear others point of view as well.
Cheers - Darren

: After 2007 and 2009 here an update of 2011 and outlook 2012:
: of course only my personal view: interesting how the prices
: move: all up I would say god for collectors.
: -----------------------------------------------------------

: First impression 2009: markets are very dry in Autavia's:
: especially in MINT/NOS watches.

: In 2011 markets still tight: a large number of viceroys, but
: also second row autavias like 11630 orange very hard to
: find

: ----------------------------------------------------------

: For prices over 2009: see comments for 2011

: **Autavia Sifferts have reached a flat plateau of 3-3500 Euro. With
: watches in good-very good conditions selling at 3000 euro
: currently. We saw many sifferts this years: I would say 15 I
: have seen at least: not many at ebay: most of them here and
: others on professional auction companies

: After Siffert high of 4500 and even 5000 Euro in 2010, prices
: are steady at 4000 Euro now. In 2011 I saw at least 10-14 pieces
: in all kind of quality. still many rookies around who dont kow
: what they sell

: **PVD watches: the silver PVD is going at 1500 Euro in MINT
: conditions (2 examples recently); the black and green Autavia is
: still extremely scarce this year with only 2 examples black and
: one in green seen. Price for USED oney are at 1400 euro; Mint I
: have not seen any: guess the auction one PVD green for 1800 euro
: but this auction in my eyes was not so much known to public.

: PVD's are very scare now: I only saw a Military, Super MINT
: black this year, one green in NOS, but without bracelet and 3
: silver ones: one of them NOS unused (now mine all 3 silver).
: conclusion cacth what you can PVD....also with other Heuer
: models

: **GMT's get good prices at 2000-2400 Euro; the NOS one was higher
: sure; GMT's seem to have improved consiberatelly after beeing
: down to 1500-1600 euro in 2008. The 11063 V GMT seems to be
: highly collectable MINT at 2300-2500 euro. I saw 2-3 examples
: good: but all subject to upcoming (heavy) restoration work and
: still banana high prices.

: GMT's are at 3000 Euro now for the 11630 and the 1163 are very
: high in price: especially the 24 hours version. I saw 3-5 very
: good to Mint of 11630 and 1163 this year. 11063 Vs become very
: hard to find. much harder than e.g. Diver 100's

: ** VIC'S we saw many, many, many: people seem to get rid of the
: normal watches first if a crisis starts: the Vics range at about
: 1000 euro (incl brace) after they dropped down to 750-800 euro
: by mid of 2009

: so many Vics for so much money. they go for 1200 euro
: excluding bracelet. to many pseudo dereck bells: but endless
: auction loops...they never sell for these prices. The Ur-Dereck
: Bell with big blocks goes 2000 euro and I only saw 2 this
: year

: ** REAL so called "Dereck Bells" seem to be hard to find.
: A lot of put togethers on the market. Even Vics are called Bells
: now.

: **orange 11630: Very very hard to find in 2009 I dont know one
: single watch dealed in very good to MINT conditions

: almost zero this year: no single mint model i saw

: **silver dial 11630: 1500 Euro (dopped from 2000+)

: back to 2000-2400 euro...if you find a mint one: saw 3 pieces
: this year all above 2000 euro

: **diver100: still good prices at 3000-3500 euro but high peaks at
: 4000 euro as in 2008 not achieveable currently: the diver100
: numbers are still low in my eyes: many watches are making their
: way through different collectors: HERE a DATABASE for Registery
: is absolutelly necessary.

: big wave in 2010 of asssambled models (i know the source)
: however now very try market. price for the two in 2011 i saw
: were 3500-3700 euro: mint of course; the 11630P i saw 4 this
: year. gone at 2000 euro when very good to mint

: **11063V: saw a NOS one this year for high price. For the rest this
: watch ranges at 1300-1350 euro max currently

: with bracelet range at 1400-1600 euro

: **skippers: range at 1000-1200 euro for the 11063 case version

: same same than 2009

: **Regattas: extremely low at 600-800 euro: even with box and being
: near NOS

: saw all 3 colors this year all NOs at 1600-1800 euro: strong
: increase for NOS PVD Heuer trend !!!!!

: **red flagged heuer boxes: have dropped to 300-350 euro

: 600-800 euro now...crazy world

: **autavia bracelets range all at 300-350 euro now (coming from 450
: Euro). They are very hard to find as single accessory:
: especially MINT and original.

: plated at 550 euro, gf's at 650 euro; jubilee at 450
: euro...all mint of course with end pieces

: **60's Autavias seem to loose more and more track: both in prices
: but also in being in collectors focus. Sure "Rindt like
: watches" would go high: but I have not seen new example in
: 2009

: gone much higher now. believe as with vics the short
: availabilty of good automatic autavias help to increase prices
: in vics and 60s

: --------------------------------------------------------

: Highlights for me in 2011

: - NOS GMT (I own)
: - NOS Siffert (I own)
: - NOS Silber PVD (I own)

: --------------------------------------------------------

: Trend 2012

: number of traded watches will be low: in begin of the crisis we saw
: heavy trade traffic: now that we have traded stuff among us it
: stopped naturally.

: as in 2009 the number of watches in forgotten drawers will be low.
: think the times of forgetten stuff in cellars are defenitelly
: over: you see this with watches but also other collectors stuff
: on ebay: ebay is already a platform for 97% new stuff: so jeffs
: comment on selling pages like OTD or other auction pages is
: right.

: as in 2009 we will see an ongoing heavy trade of Autavia PARTS (and
: other heuer parts). For me this underlines that there are many
: "good-only" watches outside which need to be tuned
: into very-good to Mint examples.

: The big question is: where are all the MINT autavia examples?:
: think still in collectors hands. Will the prices go up in 2010?:
: I dont think so: they will remain flat if we can prevent another
: shock like AlKaida or Economy for the upcoming time. Collectors
: only will sell if they have to sell. This will also remain for
: (hopefully) better economic times in future: I believe/hope than
: people will try to buy what they can get: but markets will
: remain dry for sure.

: Conclusion. If you find a MINT or NOS Autavia example in 2010 : BUY
: IT.

: Concusion 2012 go ahead buying mint samples of autavias. the
: euro crisis will push watch purchases till the point of
: "colapse"..tan you will seee many wwatches coming out
: of the safes from panic sales: like in 2001 and 2008: so wait
: and pray ..or just go with the flow ; desambling watches is at
: the limit: Vics prices so high that desambling can get negative:
: still best source for mint tachy bezel :-)

: -----------------------------------------------------

: ape