I agree with your movement analysis: the cal 12 go now for 700 euro. i personally think they are still underestimated and you will see they will go 750-850 euro soon. also scarce movement parts become very expensive now. cal 11 I already rate at 900 euro..at least i would not give away below. and yes cal 14 and others...forget to get one....

Same with some rookies asking for a siffert dial...i am also smiling when i see these posts...because what would be the (theoretical) price for such a dial....sure not below 2000-2500 euro...

Bezels can go upto 600 euro (e.g. bezel NOS for 11630P or a bezel NOS for 11063 V GMT but also MINT Tachy 450 Euro: those prices I have seen already in 2010). the 60s bezel prices are also 600 euro for mint material..i was lso similin someone was wondering about the last auction of autavia parts at 880 usd....think this person has not gone with the time and is still sleeping in his price world 5 years ago....

However finding Mint-NOS bezels is very tricky now...also with Vics....of course there are aftermarket bezels, but the good collectors eye does recognize this immediatly the distance from the numbers to the small minute lines is much shorter as with original. the overal pattern of the stamping more raw)

the fact boxes gone so high is an indication, that people collect watches and want to get their package complete. the same is true for VIC's prices...people just dont have chance to get other models easily....may be even newcomers have never heard about a black PVD Autavia...as they have never seen one

Furthermore the ebay-gold rush did open all the cellars and boxes all over the world, it is hard to believe those, who where higher educated (and thus had more chance to purchase an expensive watch in the 70s/80s) have no access to ebay today: there might be some old people : say 80s plus or wifes of passed men who have not used ebay yet for this purpose, but more likely these poeple go for a local sales than for a platform like ebay: they tend to make face to face deals.

In otherwords the hunting will be more tricky and also this means we all need more these platforms as onthedsh ...as ebay is a mass forum with only these VIC's....especially in the US...europe you can still find some gems...but you are not the only one finding this gem :-).....we all search for typo-auctions, or contact seller earlier...trust me....you are not alone like 10 years ago...and with the very limited number of TOP items on ebay you either need to be quick (and mobile...to pick up quick) ...or you need invest the extra cent to get it into your collection

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Siffert: I believe its a all time magic model and you can always put one more than less in your collection....
GMT's: same with them
PVD's: I holded about 4 MINT-NOS black PVD in my life...only kept the one NOS model...today I would not give away one single piece again...they are such scarce.....I rememeber when I purchased the NOS green PVD back in 2005/06...I thought 2200 Euro...a lot of money for a green PVD autavia...today the price is at least 5000 euro....again NOS conditions not MINT....there is no second one I know...yes one case only...but this is only half a autavia...especially with PVD's the bracelet is KEY

Also as Jeff indicated elsewhere the dash watches have strongly increased : especially the super autavia made a very big jump: doubled in price and getting a mint one is 3000-3500 euro

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However what is the downside: I also collected Breitling and saw over the last 18 month a strong price errosion. Happy I saw this early so I sold ALL of my pieces and turned them back into HEUER and only kept the core of my collection: means 8-10 pieces. I still believe Heuer is magic because we make it magic....in other words....we are one crowd of collectors and again..generations behind us ...people in 30s and 20s dont collect that much Heuer than we do 40-60.

So I believe its good to cocentrate on markets and to follow so you see the trend...like with stocks....watch the front and watch your back too.

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We will also see as predicted by me 5 years ago, that Chinese will start to collect watches (vintage) too. If you now go to Asia everybody is following the mass model trend of Rolex, Breitling, Omega and others: and people buy these nasty breitling bentleys...young people of course..18-40. This will change soon and than I beleive prices will go really up for vintage stuff as people dont know where to invest money. Unfortunatelly it will not start with Heuer but with Rolex (of course).

A very philosophic post I think...and real

ape

: I think your overall analysis and predictions seem quite
: reasonable. The scarce will remain scarce both in terms of
: complete watches and parts. With fewer exotic and rare pieces
: coming up for sale people will be making the effort to contact
: known owners of their targeted model in the hope to arrange a
: private transaction. Further to this people holding watches will
: be focussed upon getting some the watches they hold off to a
: specialist for a "Spa" treatment. The whole time being
: aware that the cost of the "Spa" will be recouped in
: overall value but also greatly increase their own enjoyment of
: the watch whilst they hold it.

: With the general realisation now that the spare parts to -
: A. complete projects
: B. replace worn items
: C. correct watches with the wrong components
: - are much harder than anticipated to find i also imagine seeing
: more project watches being offered up for sale by owners that
: cant wait the distance to find their components.

: A further trend i predict is the rising cost of complete working
: movements. The Cal.11 & 12 movements in particular are more
: and more in demand and we will see all the lower valued watches
: that carry these movements (barrel Carrera's, Viceroy's, Daytona
: etc) being targeted and broken up for spares. We will start
: seeing these movements trading in the 750+ Euro range in a very
: short period of time.
: More specialised Heuer marked movements such as Landeron 189,
: Valj.72 GMT , Cal.14 and Valj.7740 will become mirages as the
: desperate seekers start buying complete watches in a poor state
: in order to give their treasured time piece a heart transplant.

: All the first edition models will come under fucus. This is due to
: the "Origin of the species" theory as collectors feel
: justified reaching that bit further into their budgets for these
: pieces as they feel they can justify it being the father of a
: series.
: - Dauphine hand Autavia
: - Poly back Carrera
: - Chronomatics (naturally)
: - Cal.11 Carrera & Autavia variants with 3,6,9,12 hour subdials
: - 1163 Autavia GMT 1-24 bezel

: It might be nice to hear others point of view as well.
: Cheers - Darren