Some thoughts.
Assuming that more boxes are flooding the market tomorrow, that will automatically reduce the "astronomic" value reached recently by what is just an "empty box".
Genuine or not, if dozen of boxes are for sale tomorrow on ebay, it will reduce their attractiveness and consequentely their price. Of course, it will affect the real ones as well but at the end of the day, are we watches or boxes collectors ? would it be not correct that even a genuine Heuer box is priced below 100 $ ? Regarding the question about fake or not fake for the Italian item, it is of course to the experts to come up. J-P.