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Some Thoughts About the Estimates

All:

Three quick thoughts about the "estimates" of the Heuers being offered in the Monaco auction, as follows.

  • Perhaps the first thing to realize is that, as a group, these watches being sold in the MOnaco auction do not appear to be in nearly as good a condition as the ones sold in the Haslinger auction. Almost every watch sold in the Haslinger auction was in NOS or near mint condition, and there were some exceptionally rare ones (two Chronomatics, the black PVD MOnaco and three Indianapolis Motor Speedway watches, for example). Yes, there are some nice ones in the upcoming auction, but -- as a group -- they do not seem to have the scarcity or the superb condition that we saw with the Haslinger collection. Several of the watches have "wrong" elements (hands, for example), and we simply did not see this in the Haslinger auction
  • A second point is that the Haslinger auction was the culmination of a worldwide promotional effort, that had the full backing of TAG Heuer. Arno had commissioned amazing photos of his watches, and literally "written the book" about these watches. Then there were the previews, i several cities and a media campaign. They were aggressive in setting the "estimates" for the Haslinger watches, and we saw that in the end these estimates were realistic.
  • Finally, as we have discussed in the wake of the Haslinger auction, there is some "black magic" with the so-called "estimates" -- the auction house (and owner) want them to be high, so that bidders will be encouraged / they want them to be low so that they can put out the post-auction press release bragging that estimates were exceeded by X percent. So I'm not sure how much stock to put in any of these "estimates".
In the end, it's the action in the auction room, and not the estimates, that will determine the sales prices. The Haslinger auction was the "perfect storm" to achieve high prices; the Monaco auction does not seem to have all these elements, but it has a great setting and some high-roller car guys who will think of these watches as cheap souvenirs. That is a good combination, even if not the full "perfect storm".

Jeff

+++++++++++++++++++

: Hi Jeff,

: Thanks for the work on this. I studied the descriptions and
: starting range price levels. It looked to me that these prices (
: in Euro) seem rather low compared to present prices. In many
: cases lower than the average catalogue level at the AH auction
: in London ( which was in pounds; today 1 GBP = approx. 1.20
: Euro). Is there an explanation for that big difference ??
: Today's typical buyers who go to an auction in Monaco may be
: affected by the economic situation, but that doesn't seem to
: have hit on today's Heuer prices I would say. On the contrary.
: Also have a look at Rich's website which is a rather nice
: reflection I think.

: Does anybody have an explanation for these starting price levels?
: Are pricing eroding, are the watching in a so-so condition, or
: is it a Bonham marketing trick to attract more attendants to the
: auction?

: Cheers
: Ron

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