Here is a comment that Eric Wind has posted on Instagram . . . very interesting and insightful, as always.

I believe Heuer prices rose too fast, too quickly (partially due to some actors inflating values as they chased these) and that the Heuer thematic auction had an extremely negative effect on the market as it added unrealistic expectations to a superheated market. I really wish the Heuer thematic auction never had happened, I think the Heuer values would be in a better place had the unrealistic expectations not been created through that auction being held.

If there was to be a Heuer auction, I thought it would have been better to source a wider array of watches (from the 1940s through the 1970s, not just those from the Jack Heuer era) at a wider array of price points in order to appeal to a larger group of collectors (not just the more narrow focus of the 1960s and 1970s) and with consignments from a wider array of collectors (not just two collectors), as I had done with a group of 40+ Heuers sourced from an array of collectors in the June 2017 Christie's watch auction in New York.

Watches such as the "First Execution" "Big Subs" Autavias remain quite rare - well under 100 total are known to the market across the 2446 and 3646 variants and I do not see more than a couple emerging fresh to the market each year, suggesting that these watches were of a very limited production. The Skipperera, likewise, I consider one of the most interesting watches ever made and I believe well under 30 are known to the market in varying conditions.

After the thematic auction, some people began to lose confidence since we didn't see a 300k+ result on the early Autavia, for instance. We have seen a little decline in prices on Daytonas after the most recent Daytona thematic auction, too. I prefer to see thematic auctions in Geneva focused more on categories, such as steel chronographs, rather than on specific brands or models where there is too much hype on pricing and unrealistic expectations from watch collectors about where values are going as a result of a forthcoming thematic auction.

A very wise commentary, from someone who knows these watches well.

I sold my Black Autavia Chronomatic at the Christie's June 2017 NYC auction, in part based on Eric's advice. Eric predicted that the Christie's auction would produce solid results, but he also saw considerable risk that prices would go down, after Phillips Heuer Parade, in November 2017.

Both these predictions proved to be accurate, with the Christie's auction (NYC; June 2017) being the high watermark for the vintage Heuer market, and the Heuer Parade (Geneve; November 2017) triggering or at least signalling the beginning of the correction. I would agree with Eric -- that the timing and format of the Heuer Parade was not prudent, and then we saw problems with some of the biggest watches in the auction (one watch withdrawn; many sold at low estimate; some grumbling from buyers, when they received the watches; etc.). In real time, the Heuer Parade seemed OK / perhaps stabilizing the market; 14 months later, we have a much better perspective on its negative / destabilizing impact on the market.

Here's to the recovery!!

Jeff

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: thoughts from the group?

: having seen the antiquorum one go for 47.5k this seems very very
: attractively priced. a steal even. and about the most reputable
: dealer i can think of

: https://www.instagram.com/p/BsZH9bfhi7x/