: In the Hodinkee posting introducing the new Skipper, they write
: that "fewer than 20 [of the original Skipperreras] are
: thought to have been made and only a dozen are still known to
: exist today". Click HERE , for the Hodinkee posting.

: The phrase that I have quoted above strikes me as something of a
: disconnect. If we have seen 12 of these in today's market (which
: estimate sounds about right), surely there were a lot more than
: 20 produced, back in 1967 . . . right? I am assuming that the
: "survival rate" of most of our beloved vintage Heuers
: is in the 5 / 10 / 20 percent range. So if we are seeing 12 of
: the Skipperreras in the hands of today's collectors, there must
: have been far more than 20 produced.

: Please share any thoughts on this point.

Is this a case of "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence"? The ones that are known are those that have been offered for sale in this century or the owner has discovered interest in the watch on the internet. OTD was started in 2003 but I didn't find it until 2015. My Carrera 7753 was worn occasionally during that gap, although mostly lay in a drawer. OTD should not have been hard for me to find, I've been a user of networked computers since 1977 and have even worked in technical support for a search engine company and a web-server outfit, so I was hardly ignorant about how to find it.

Mark & Paul's book suggests that the 7753 case has serials in the range 105xxx to 108xxx, which implies production around 3000 - 4000, how many watches with that case are known? A few hundred I expect (Jeff/Mark?). That suggests that those currently known are about 10% of production, right in the middle of Jeff's estimate.

Next, what happened to the "missing" watches? Dropped overboard -- very few, damaged to the point of not working -- again few. Deliberately thrown away -- not by the original owner and probably not by anyone who inherited the watch or was gifted it. So how many are forgotten in a drawer or the owner knows where it is but doesn't know its current significance? That is where I suspect most of them are.

I'm backing Jeff on this, if 12 Skipperreras are known I would bet on 100 to 150 originally made.

Mike